November 4, 2012:

So, the election is almost over. Tiring, that.

My predictions, all applying to the period between election day and January 2017, unless otherwise noted - and all testable, so in 2017 I can look back and either gloat or be very embarrassed, follow.

Regardless of whether it's Obama or Romney who wins:

The Feds will continue to prosecute intrastate marijuana sales under coopted Commerce Clause authority, regardless of whether they are legal in the state in question or not.

The government will still insist it has the power to conduct warrantless searches at airports.

The government will run pilot programs aimed at extending warrantless random searches to trains, interstate busses, and metro areas

A Tea Party/Republican/conservative Democrat coalition will pass a bill watering down those clauses in the health care bill that place restrictions on insurance companies. The individual mandate will be preserved.

The government will not investigate or prosecute allegations of illegal mass electronic surveillance conducted prior to September 11th, 2001. If such are brought before any US court by private groups, the Federal government will argue that the case should be dismissed and the plaintiff's evidence sealed.

The government will not prosecute any government employees or contractors who tortured prisoners after September 11th, 2001.

If Obama wins:

He will publically oppose the bill to deregulate insurers, but sign it anyhow.

Employment will improve at least slightly (to make this testable: jobs/population will be higher for at least three out of four years of the 2013-2017 term than the same figure for the 2009-2013 term.).

In spite of the fears of some nutjobs, the US will not become a Communist or Muslim state.

The world will not end (unless a methane bloop switches us over to an anoxic atmosphere, but even then the green sulfur bacteria will survive.).

If Romney wins:

He will not initiate any new economic sanctions against China. He may, however, attempt to claim credit for sanctions initiated during the Obama administration that did not become effective until after his inauguration.

He will applaud the corporate-friendly amendments to the health care law before signing them.

The national debt will pass twenty trillion.

Romney will attempt to get Congress to pass a tax plan that raises taxes on the poor while cutting them on the rich. If it passes into law, revenue and real employment will go down, but the richest 1% will get richer.

If Congress provides him with a bill to cut taxes on the rich (for testability - any tax cut that affects people making over $1 million/year), or to cut the capital gains tax, he will sign it.

The world will not end (unless a methane bloop switches us over to an anoxic atmosphere, but even then the green sulfur bacteria will survive.).


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